[Offtopic] Hype Cycle

Roland Gesthuizen rgesthuizen at gmail.com
Tue Nov 6 15:13:43 EST 2007

Here is a cross post from Lindy on the QLD GIL list. Although she mentioned
it in relation to Second Life, it may be of interest to year 11 teachers
covering IT issues or eLearning coordinators trying to see beyond the
hyperbole that often engulfs new technologies or educational initiatives.

sp <http://www.gartner.com/pages/story.php.id.8795.s.8.jsp>

Regards Roland

---------- Forwarded message ----------

Hype Cycles: What is a Hype Cycle?

A Hype Cycle is a graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and
business application of specific technologies.

Since 1995, Gartner has used Hype Cycles to characterize the over-enthusiasm
or "hype" and subsequent disappointment that typically happens with the
introduction of new technologies (see Understanding Gartner's Hype Cycles)
for an introduction to the Hype Cycle concepts). Hype Cycles also show how
and when technologies move beyond the hype, offer practical benefits and
become widely accepted.
What are the 5 phases of a Hype Cycle?

1. "Technology Trigger"
The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough,
product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.

2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations"
In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm
and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a
technology, but there are typically more failures.

3. "Trough of Disillusionment"
Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet
expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press
usually abandons the topic and the technology.

4. "Slope of Enlightenment"
Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses
continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand
the benefits and practical application of the technology.

5. "Plateau of Productivity"
A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it
become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly
stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the
plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or
benefits only a niche market.

Roland Gesthuizen - ICT Coordinator - Westall Secondary College

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change
the world; indeed it is the only thing that ever has." --Margaret Mead
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